The Technology of Human Survival in the Age of Space


'Kenneth E. Boulding Kenneth E. Boulding

(Summary of paper presented at Ars Electronica, Linz, Austria, June 24, 1986)

We are all aware that the human race, and perhaps the whole evolutionary process on earth, faces a deep crisis, and even possible extinction. The most immediate crisis is that there is a positive probability, under the present system of unilateral national defense, of nuclear war. It is a fundamental principle that if there is a positive probability of anything, it will happen within a finite time. If the present system of unilateral national defense continues, nuclear war is virtually certain in something between 100 and 500 years, depending on its probability. This is a system of such unfamiliarity that there is doubt of the consequences, but the "worse case" of the nuclear winter and very widespread extinction of species again has some probability and cannot be ruled out. The probability that Europe will become a nuclear desert, devoid of life, is much higher than the probability that the whole world will become such.

It is the cumulative rise in human knowledge which has created this situation, largely as a result of the development of the subculture of science. Without science, we would not have either nuclear warheads, long range missiles, nuclear submarines, the instruments of chemical and biological war or continued research and discovery in the means of destruction. One should also add that we would not have the delights of space exploration, the conquest of many diseases, a doubling or more of the expectation of human life, the world wide spread of travel and culture, and so on. It is, however, very difficult for human societies to "unlearn". Almost everything that we have ever known is still known by somebody today.

The only answer to the nuclear crisis is more learning. This has to be done not in the field of the means of destruction, but in the learning of valuations and in learning about the true nature of social systems. It is social systems and inappropriate valuations that threaten to destroy us, not physical or biological systems as such. Physical catastrophes like the impact of an asteroid or biological catastrophes like the mutation of a deadly virus may have some probability, but it is very low. The probability that "star wars" (the Strategic Defense Initiative [SDI]) beloved of Mr. Reagan will reduce the probability of catastrophe seems very low. Offensive weapons, like the cannon, always seem to have had the advantage over defensive structures like armor and city walls which is why the invention of the effective cannon destroyed the feudal system and created the national state. The nuclear weapon has now done for national defense what the cannon did for the feudal baron. We therefore have to learn a new technology of human survival. This involves

1. putting human and evolutionary survival as the highest value and priority. We cannot defend the national state by destroying the human race!


2. Developing techniques of defense against unwanted change, and the encouragement of wanted change, do not threaten the continuance of the human race. These would involve such things as policies for stable peace (something which already exists with a large group of nations, and must be spread to the rest of the world). The dynamics of this process must be worked out in terms of political settlements (The Peace of Westphalia of 1648 is a good model), new interpretations of history, a shift to defensive and non?violent civilian based defense, and so on.